Limits of Russian endurance in a war of attrition

who bears the cost · snapshot release
Data as of 21 Aug 2026 Budget execution Jan–Aug 2026 NWF as of 1 Aug 2026 As of 12 Sep 2026: widgets 1.1, 2.1, 2.2 updated · 2.6 added Download PDF ↓

Funding bridge

funding closure bridge
who pays for each successive link

At a glance

at a glance

Tier 1 — quantities that settle the argument on their own

tier 1
4 widgets
Tier 1 is entirely fiscal, monetary and physical. Military quantities are placed in a separate group deliberately.

Tier 2 — the mechanism that explains tier 1

tier 2
5 widgets

Military group

military inputs to the fiscal calculation
3 widgets
This is not a front-line panel. What is here are the quantities that enter the financial calculation: manpower reproduction and the price of ground, plus a widget on the depth of strikes into the Russian rear. Drone counts, advances and equipment losses are the province of ISW, DeepState and other professional sources, and are deliberately absent here.

Tier 3 — inputs, confirmations, context

tier 3

Conversion

conversion
a register of mechanisms, three ladders and three registers around them

Manifestation matrix

manifestation matrix

Calendar of resolving events

resolving events
dated and undated events

Financing need and the capacity to close it

appendix C.1 — mandatory disclosure page for widget 1.1
the first column argues against our own reading

Common errors

appendix B — common errors
a checking frame

Scope, refusals, convertibility

scope and refusals
section 0