1
CSC 2026
Hard- Forecast
- CSC for 2026 will be RUB 13.1 to 18.9 trn, central estimate 16.1
- Falsifier
- Below 12 or above 20 trn
- Check date
- interim reading 20.02.2027; verdict 30.04.2027
Forecast registry
Every reading in the Limits of Russian Endurance panel carries a condition that would show it to be wrong. This page collects those conditions in one place, with the date on which each will be checked and the verdict once the date has passed.
The panel measures fiscal incidence: who bears the cost of the war, through transfers and through observable administrative acts. Its headline metric is the Consolidated State Claim (CSC), currently around 40 per cent of federal budget revenue. A metric of that kind can be defended in two ways. One is argument. The other is to state in advance what would falsify it, name the date, and publish the verdict whether or not the verdict is flattering. This page is the second.
Nothing here is a market call. The forecasts exist to test readings, not to advise anyone.
All cards are issued on 2 September 2026, the date of first publication. Questions already settled by that date are not carried over, because a settled question is not a forecast.
How this relates to the panel
Each entry is tied to a widget, an ordinal ladder or a cell of the manifestation matrix. The registry runs on a calendar rather than on a document version: a card is checked on its date regardless of which release of the panel is current, and the panel is not re-versioned to accommodate a verdict. Where a check overturns a reading, the corresponding panel text is revised in the next release and the revision is labelled as a revision.
Deposited files do not change. Corrections appear in the next deposit, with the correction named as such.
Ranked register
Ordered by how much the answer matters to a reader following the war, not by the author’s confidence. Status of all entries at 2 September 2026 is Open.
2
Served by the price of the ruble
Medium- Forecast
- The claim is served by the price of the ruble, not by shrinking the claim: with CSC near 16 trn, observed inflation (inFOM) does not fall below 10 per cent and the real rate for a depositor does not turn sustainably positive
- Falsifier
- inFOM below 10 per cent and a positive real deposit rate for three consecutive months
- Check date
- monthly; verdict 31.01.2027
3
Treasury balance exhausted
Hard- Forecast
- The treasury cash balance is exhausted. Linear projection of the current rate; the date moves earlier under mobilisation payments, a shortfall in tax receipts, emergency measures, or accelerated monetary financing
- Falsifier
- Balance above 3 trn at 01.02.2027
- Check date
- 20.02.2027
4
2026 outturn
Hard- Forecast
- Revenue 40.0 to 41.0, expenditure 47.5 to 49.5, deficit 7.1 to 9.0 trn (central 7.9)
- Falsifier
- Any one of the three lines outside its range
- Check date
- 20.01.2027
5
The bid book is made at the repo window
Hard- Forecast
- For each OFZ auction from 02.09.2026 to 31.12.2026, the rise in banking sector debt to the Bank of Russia between the business day before the auction and the second business day after settlement is at least 70 per cent of the nominal volume placed. The demand is manufactured at the central bank, not found in the market
- Falsifier
- The ratio is below 70 per cent on the CBR daily operational series, for auctions accounting for the majority of volume placed over the period. Measured around settlement rather than at month end, because budget spending returns the liquidity to the sector within weeks and nets the month-end reading
- Check date
- first reading 15.10.2026; verdict 15.01.2027
6
Sequester capped at 0.6 trn
Hard- Forecast
- The intra-year effect of a 2026 sequester will not exceed RUB 0.6 trn, because the decision cannot be taken before October
- Falsifier
- Expenditure cut against the consolidated budget schedule of more than 0.6 trn in the 2026 outturn
- Check date
- 31.01.2027
7
GFN and the cash balance
Hard- Forecast
- Against the corpus thesis (rule 5). GFN for 2026 will be 9.0 to 11.4 trn; the share of the cash balance in covering it 45 to 55 per cent
- Falsifier
- Share below 35 or above 65 per cent
- Check date
- 15.02.2027
8
The borrowing ceiling is formally breached
Medium- Forecast
- By 31.12.2026 the 2026 internal borrowing programme will be raised above RUB 5.51 trn, or gross OFZ placement will exceed the 6.47 trn nominal ceiling, using the authority to borrow beyond the debt ceiling granted by the 2026 budget execution amendments
- Falsifier
- Neither occurs by 31.12.2026
- Check date
- 31.12.2026
9
January cliff
Hard- Forecast
- January and February 2027 will require either new large borrowing or NWF spending: the January cycle needs at least 3.0 trn and the year is entered with no more than 3.5
- Falsifier
- A Q1 2027 plan comparable to 1.2 trn that is executed
- Check date
- 28.02.2027
10
Revenue meets plan
Medium- Forecast
- Federal revenue meets the annual plan of RUB 40,283.3 bn
- Falsifier
- 2026 actual below 38 trn
- Check date
- interim reading 10.10.2026; verdict 20.01.2027
11
Budget money follows control, not exposure
Hard- Forecast
- No general mechanism will be created to finance protection of privately owned facilities against drone attack: no fund, no subsidy, no budget programme, no targeted mechanism beyond the existing profit tax deduction. Where the budget does pay for protection, it pays only after control of the facility has passed to the state or to a state-aligned operator. The state does not buy protection for an owner; it buys protection for an asset it holds
- Falsifier
- Public money spent on protecting a facility that remains in its owner’s control and whose owner sits outside the state circuit, whichever body administers it. Not a falsifier: funding for a facility under temporary management under Decree 604 or transferred to a state or aligned operator; nor funding for a facility whose owner has direct or indirect state participation of 25 per cent or more, or appears on the list of strategic enterprises
- Check date
- general mechanism 31.12.2026; control leg 31.03.2027
12
Claim against the military bloc
Hard- Forecast
- The ratio of the consolidated claim to the military and security bloc of expenditure is about 95.6 per cent
- Falsifier
- Below 85 or above 110 per cent on the consolidated budget schedule
- Check date
- 31.12.2026
13
Banks’ debt to the CBR hits 8 trn
Medium- Forecast
- Banking sector debt to the Bank of Russia reaches 8 trn by November 2026, on the operational series: 3.637 trn at end-2025, 6.6 trn at 14.08.2026, a pace of about +0.40 trn per month
- Falsifier
- Below 7.4 trn at 30.11.2026. The threshold is the forecast’s own arithmetic and tests the pace assumption, which is the content of the card
- Check date
- 15.12.2026
14
And 6.5 to 9.5 trn at year end
Medium- Forecast
- Banking sector debt to the Bank of Russia at 01.01.2027 of RUB 6.5 to 9.5 trn. Measures the speed at which the bill is shifted, not a shortage of money: the CBR is not constrained in supplying rubles
- Falsifier
- Below 6.5 trn. One-sided by design: only a slowdown refutes the reading, and an outcome above 9.5 would strengthen it
- Check date
- 31.01.2027
15
The state circuit crowds out the rest
Hard- Forecast
- The share of corporate portfolio growth accounted for by the largest state companies does not fall sustainably below 40 per cent (about one half in June 2026)
- Falsifier
- Sustainably below 40 per cent while provisioning charges are not rising
- Check date
- monthly; verdict 15.02.2027
16
2027 debt service is a third above plan
Hard- Forecast
- Debt service in 2027, with 1.0 trn of floaters placed in Q3 2026 and 1.5 trn in Q4, is 4.7 to 5.2 trn, central 4.9, against a plan of 3.758. Gap 0.9 to 1.4 trn. Sensitivity: at the current floating-rate stock, each 100 bp on the average 2027 key rate moves the figure by roughly 0.1 trn
- Falsifier
- A 2027 actual below 4.3. A figure near 3.8 in the draft is a placeholder, not a falsification
- Check date
- 01.10.2026 (draft) and 31.01.2028 (actual)
17
Section 13 as a horizon discriminator
Hard- Forecast
- Section 13 of the draft 2027 budget discriminates between hypotheses about the regime’s horizon. Because the return to floaters happened before the draft was submitted, a figure at or below 4.2 trn can now only be a placeholder; 4.3 to 4.8 is a worked document pricing the new floating debt at the Bank of Russia’s own rate path; above 4.8 is a worked document pricing a path above the Bank of Russia’s forecast, which is the strongest admission available in an official document
- Falsifier
- A draft with no three-year breakdown under section 13 is entered in the “Gone dark” log and is not read in favour of any branch
- Check date
- 01.10.2026
18
Floaters take over the issuance
Medium- Forecast
- From 02.09.2026 to 31.12.2026, floaters account for at least 70 per cent of gross OFZ placement by nominal value. This tests a stated official intention against behaviour: the target debt structure allows 25 to 30 per cent floating against about 39 per cent actual, and the department stated in April 2026 that its task is to minimise the floater share
- Falsifier
- Below 70 per cent
- Check date
- 15.01.2027
19
Observed inflation does not fall
Easy- Forecast
- Observed inflation (inFOM) does not fall sustainably while military spending stays at its current level and the external capital market remains closed
- Falsifier
- Three consecutive monthly declines with military and security spending unchanged and the external market still closed
- Check date
- 31.03.2027
20
Structural liquidity deficit holds
Easy- Forecast
- The structural liquidity deficit of the banking sector does not fall sustainably below RUB 1.5 trn before the end of 2026
- Falsifier
- Three consecutive months below 1.5 trn with the claim unchanged
- Check date
- monthly; verdict 15.01.2027
21
First temporary management order
Hard- Forecast
- The first published government decision imposing temporary management under Decree 604 will be taken before 31.12.2026 and will concern a facility with a documented history of drone damage
- Falsifier
- No published decision at the check date, or a first decision concerning a facility with no documented history of damage
- Check date
- 31.12.2026
22
ATM cash deposit limits
Medium- Forecast
- A limit on cash deposits through ATMs by individuals will be introduced by regulation, announced by a deputy finance minister in April 2026 as an autumn 2026 measure
- Falsifier
- No act
- Check date
- 31.12.2026
23
Free treasury balances at year end
Hard- Forecast
- Free treasury balances at 01.01.2027: 1.0 to 2.6 trn without borrowing, 2.5 to 3.5 trn if 1.5 trn of floaters is placed
- Falsifier
- Outside the range
- Check date
- 15.02.2027
24
Capital buffers get softened
Hard- Forecast
- The schedule for restoring capital adequacy buffers in 2027 will be softened: postponed, reduced, or replaced by another mechanism
- Falsifier
- The Bank of Russia confirms the schedule unchanged, with the capital conservation buffer at 1.5 per cent and the systemic importance buffer at 0.75 per cent introduced from 01.01.2027 at the announced size
- Check date
- 31.12.2026
25
Q4 borrowing is concentrated
Hard- Forecast
- Q4 2026 borrowing is concentrated: at least 1.0 trn over no more than three auction days. The instrument mix is carried by card 18; this card tests concentration only
- Falsifier
- An even distribution across the quarter’s auction calendar
- Check date
- 15.01.2027
Fuel branch
Kept separate because these cards measure a physical shortage on a much shorter clock than the fiscal cards. The connection to the panel is the same one: high-octane gasoline is where the claim stops being a line in a budget and becomes a queue.
26
Rationing waits for the election
Hard- Forecast
- Formalisation of gasoline rationing, meaning a federal access instrument (coupon, QR code, access by status), will not occur before the State Duma voting day and will follow within two to six weeks after it
- Falsifier
- An instrument is introduced before voting day, or none exists six weeks after it
- Check date
- main voting day 20.09.2026; verdict 01.11.2026
27
The exchange signs stay consistent
Medium- Forecast
- The pair “listed exchange volume ↔ street premium” keeps consistent signs: volume down, price up, premium up. Third arm: any improvement in retail availability is accompanied by a falling share of class 5 fuel on forecourt signs
- Falsifier
- Listed volume stable or rising while the street premium rises and retail availability falls; or availability rising while the class 5 share holds or rises, which would mean supply genuinely improved
- Check date
- monthly; verdict 31.12.2026
28
The grey premium stays above the friction band
Medium- Forecast
- Through 31.12.2026 the resale price of AI-95 stays at least 35 per cent above the average forecourt price for AI-95 in the same region, measured as a median across a frozen basket
- Falsifier
- Median premium below 35 per cent for three consecutive weeks
- Check date
- weekly; verdict 31.12.2026
29
Personified fuel allocation appears in Russia
Hard- Forecast
- By 31.03.2027 at least one region of the Russian Federation introduces a personified allocation system for retail fuel: an application-based access instrument (QR code, digital coupon, registration) tied to a named person or a specific vehicle, carrying a periodic volume quota and operating across the region. The state need not call it a suspension of free sale, and is not expected to
- Falsifier
- No such system in any region of the Russian Federation by the check date. Not counted: occupied Ukrainian territory, under rule 9; even-odd plate schemes; volume caps without personal registration; corporate fuel cards in use before 02.09.2026
- Check date
- 31.03.2027
Check calendar
| Date | Cards falling due |
|---|---|
| 20.09.2026 | 26 rationing waits for the election (first half) |
| 30.09.2026 | Q3 placement result, input to 5, 8, 18 |
| 01.10.2026 | 17 section 13 discriminator · 16 2027 debt service (draft) |
| 10.10.2026 | 10 revenue meets plan (interim) |
| 15.10.2026 | 5 bid book at the repo window (first reading) |
| 01.11.2026 | 26 rationing waits for the election (verdict) |
| 15.12.2026 | 13 banks’ debt hits 8 trn |
| 31.12.2026 | 8 borrowing ceiling breached · 11 budget money follows control (general mechanism leg) · 12 claim against the military bloc · 21 first temporary management order · 22 ATM cash limits · 24 capital buffers softened · 27 exchange signs (verdict) · 28 grey premium (verdict) |
| 15.01.2027 | 5 repo window (verdict) · 18 floaters take over · 20 liquidity deficit (verdict) · 25 Q4 concentration |
| 20.01.2027 | 4 2026 outturn · 10 revenue meets plan (verdict) |
| 31.01.2027 | 2 served by the price of the ruble (verdict) · 6 sequester capped · 14 banks’ debt at year end |
| 15.02.2027 | 7 GFN and cash balance · 15 crowding out (verdict) · 23 free treasury balances |
| 20.02.2027 | 1 CSC 2026 (interim) · 3 treasury balance exhausted |
| 28.02.2027 | 9 January cliff |
| 31.03.2027 | 11 budget money follows control (control leg) · 19 observed inflation does not fall · 29 personified fuel allocation |
| 30.04.2027 | 1 CSC 2026 (verdict) |
| 31.01.2028 | 16 2027 debt service (actual) |
The heaviest date is 31 December 2026, with eight cards falling due at once.
How it is maintained
- Each card carries the quantity or condition, the date it was issued, the date of check, and an explicit falsifying condition.
- A forecast for which no falsifier can be stated does not enter the registry. If nothing would show it wrong, it is not a forecast.
- A card may be amended only before its check date, and the amendment records what caused it.
- A card may not be amended after its check date. A miss is recorded as a miss and is called that. A card resolved early by events is resolved early, not removed.
- Forecasts that work against the thesis of the corpus are marked and published first.
- Difficulty is marked. A forecast that was almost certain to come true is counted separately and does not enter the confirmed share. A registry filled with easy hits misleads the reader more than a few misses do: the confirmed share is a claim about the quality of a method, and it is worth nothing if the method took no risk.
- Entries are ordered by how much the answer matters to a reader following the war, not by the date they were issued and not by the author’s confidence.
- A card may name conditioning events in advance, under which it is withdrawn rather than scored. Conditions must be observable, must be named when the card is issued, and may not be added later. A card that survives by escape clause is worth nothing.
- Territorial perimeter. Occupied Ukrainian territory is not counted as Russian. Crimea, Sevastopol and the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts are temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. Observations from occupied territory enter as description of a mechanism and as precedent, never as a unit of the count. Statuses: Open, Confirmed, Falsified, Withdrawn before check. Difficulty: Hard, Medium, Easy. Of the 29 cards published today, 17 are Hard, 10 Medium and 2 Easy; the two Easy cards, 19 and 20, are excluded from the confirmed share under rule 6.
Statuses: Open, Confirmed, Falsified, Withdrawn before check. Difficulty: Hard, Medium, Easy. Of the 29 cards published today, 17 are Hard, 10 Medium and 2 Easy; the two Easy cards, 19 and 20, are excluded from the confirmed share under rule 6.